Following the downing of a US patrol helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump has vowed to respond. This market will resolve based on whether the US conducts any direct military action against Iranian targets (including airstrikes, missile strikes, or other offensive operations) within 14 days of this incident.
YES if credible reports confirm the US military conducted offensive operations directly targeting Iranian military facilities, assets, or personnel between June 10-24, 2026. NO if no such military action occurs by end of June 24, 2026 UTC.
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