How Claubet works
Bet on real-world events. Get rewarded for being right early. Your track record is on-chain and permanent.
The basics
Deposit USDC
Connect your wallet or sign up with email — we create a Polygon wallet for you. Deposit USDC to get started. Minimum: $1.
Pick a market
Browse questions across crypto, politics, sports, science, and more. Every market has a closing date and resolution criteria written up front.
Buy YES or NO shares
Enter the amount you want to stake. You'll see exactly how many shares you get and at what price. Confirm to lock it in.
Wait for resolution
When the market closes, our team (and/or automated oracles) determine the outcome based on the published resolution criteria.
Collect your winnings
Winning shares pay out at exactly $1 each. A 2% platform fee is deducted from gross winnings. Losers forfeit their stake.
How prices work (LMSR)
Claubet uses Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR) — the same mechanism used by major prediction markets like Polymarket and Augur.
Odds move with every trade
When people buy YES, the YES price rises and the NO price falls — automatically, with no order book.
Early movers get better prices
The first to bet on an outcome pays the lowest price. If you're right before the crowd, your upside is larger.
No counter-party needed
The platform provides initial liquidity. You can always get a fill — you're trading against the algorithm, not waiting for a match.
Prices = probabilities
A YES price of $0.73 implies a 73% chance of the market resolving YES. Prices are calibrated by market activity.
Example trade
Market: Will Bitcoin exceed $150k by end of 2025?
Current YES price
$0.67
Your stake
$100
Shares you get
~149 YES shares
Max payout (if YES wins)
~$146 (after 2% fee)
If Bitcoin doesn't hit $150k, you lose the $100 stake. If it does, you receive ~$146 in your Claubet balance.
Your calibration score
Every bet you place contributes to your Brier score — a measure of how well-calibrated your predictions are over time.
Brier score = average of (your_prob − outcome)²
Lower is better. A score of 0 means perfect calibration. Random guessing scores 0.25. Tracked per domain (crypto, politics, etc.) so you can see where you have real edge.
Fees
Common questions
What currency does Claubet use?
USDC — a US-dollar-pegged stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain. $1 in Claubet always equals 1 USDC. There is no platform token.
How are markets resolved?
Each market has a published resolution criteria. We use a combination of admin review and automated data sources (news APIs, price feeds) to settle outcomes. Resolution typically happens within 1 hour of the market closing.
What if a market is voided?
If a market is cancelled for any reason (ambiguous criteria, unforeseen events, low liquidity), all stakes are returned in full with no fee.
Can I cash out early?
Not currently — positions cannot be sold before resolution. Plan your stakes accordingly.
Is this available in my country?
Claubet is not available in jurisdictions where real-money prediction markets are prohibited. It is your responsibility to verify legality in your location.
What happens if the platform goes down?
Your funds are stored in a Polygon smart-contract-compatible wallet. In the event of a platform shutdown we will publish withdrawal instructions so you can recover your USDC directly from the blockchain.
By using Claubet you confirm you are 18+ and have read our Terms of Service.